Nowhere else in Europe have home prices risen as sharply in real terms—that is, after adjusting for inflation—over the past twenty years as they have here: about 109 percent. Germany’s figure stands at 23 percent, France’s at 4 percent, and Italy’s is actually negative at minus 24 percent. This trend is driven by low interest rates, stable immigration, and a shortage of building land. This is good news for homeowners. For anyone still looking to buy, however, the situation is becoming more challenging.
When Prices Outpace Wages
The defining issue of the coming years will be the decoupling of prices from incomes. Wages are rising in small increments, while prices for apartments and houses are rising in leaps and bounds—the gap continues to widen. This is particularly evident in terms of affordability: In many communities, an average income can now only afford a limited amount of living space in the upscale segment.
This is particularly evident in the Valais. In high-altitude areas dominated by tourism, the available space often amounts to only 60 to 70 square meters, while in communities off the main thoroughfares, over 100 square meters is still feasible. Two towns, twenty minutes apart by car, can be in completely different financial worlds. This is what determines whether a purchase is realistic—not national averages.
The Rental Market: The Silent Shortage
The situation is even more pronounced in the rental housing market. Asking rents continue to rise, with a nationwide increase of about 2 percent projected for 2026. However, another trend is the most revealing: the supply of affordable housing is plummeting. While there were still a good 75,000 listings priced below 200 francs per square meter in 2019, that number will drop to around 27,500 by 2025—a decline of about two-thirds.
So it’s not housing itself that’s lacking, but affordable housing. For a region that relies on seasonal workers, young families, and newcomers, this has real consequences. In line with this, vacancy rates in the larger municipalities of Valais have fallen steadily since 2022, in some places from over seven percent to under three percent. The market has not only become more expensive but also tighter.
Retail Space and Interest Rates
The picture is the opposite for office and retail space: rents are under pressure here, and slight declines are expected for 2026. For investors, this means above all that residential properties are currently a more reliable bet than commercial properties outside the prime locations.
Monetary policy remains the most important pillar of support. The key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged in 2026, with the first increase anticipated no earlier than mid-2027. This means mortgage rates will remain low. The limiting factor is not the interest rate, but rather the price and affordability.
What this means specifically for Valais
The larger municipalities are growing at roughly the Swiss average, driven by immigration; in contrast, some tourist towns are stagnating. Prices for upscale homes vary enormously: from around 3,500 francs per square meter in some valley communities to well over 15,000 in popular vacation destinations. It is precisely this range that makes the region attractive to investors—and at the same time prone to errors if one relies on averages rather than specific locations.
Our Assessment
Location matters more than timing. Given this range of prices, choosing the right community is more important than deciding whether to buy this year or next.
Affordability first. If you're thinking of buying, you should first figure out what you can afford—and then start looking. Otherwise, it usually ends in disappointment.
The mid-range rental market remains in demand. Given the limited supply of affordable housing and low vacancy rates, well-positioned rental properties provide a solid foundation—provided that maintenance and energy issues are addressed.
Are you considering buying, selling, or repositioning a property in Valais? We understand the differences from municipality to municipality and will work with you to determine what’s realistic. Contact us for a no-obligation consultation.
